If asked to summarize pop culture over the last couple weeks, I would pick six words.
“Squid Game.” “Squid Game.” “Squid Game.”
The Korean show is on pace to be the biggest hit in the history of Netflix. It is the most popular show in more than 90 countries, unprecedented for a Korean show (and really any TV show). It’s a meme on TikTok. It’s a Halloween costume. It has come up at least twice in conversation every day this week.
It will be easy to dismiss “Squid Game” as some kind of fluke or aberration, just the latest quirky show that Netflix turned into a viral smash. Remember when “Tiger King” was all the rage for a few weeks?
But that would be a mistake. Netflix has been investing in foreign language programming since 2015. It has spent more than $1 billion on Korean programs alone. This is the first Korean show to break through on this scale, and it is driving millions of new viewers to other East Asian series like “Sweet Home” and “Alice in Borderland.”
When all is said and done, Netflix’s greatest impact on pop culture will not be allowing us to “binge watch,” or stream TV on-demand. It will be globalizing the entertainment business, creating a platform for people from more than 190 countries to watch stories from all over the world.
When I was growing up, I watched a handful of foreign movies a year, and maybe an anime series here or there. Few, if any, foreign language TV shows were airing on major broadcast networks. Foreign languages movies were reserved for specialty theaters.
Watching shows with subtitles or dubbing is now quite common. The three most-watched shows on the most popular TV network in the world last month all hail from overseas. There’s “La Casa de Papel” from Spain, “Sex Education” from the U.K. and “Squid Game” from South Korea.
These hits couldn’t have come at a better time. Netflix recorded its weakest first half of the year since 2013, and has faced growing investor doubts about its future. Its stock was down for the year in mid-August, and its slate of shows in the third quarter had done little to inspire confidence before September.
Netflix’s share of global demand for original series hit a new low in the third quarter, per Parrot Analytics. HBO Max, Hulu, Apple TV+, Disney+ and Amazon all now account for at least 5%. Netflix is still the top dog, but its control over our attention has slipped. This chart means that Netflix has about 46% of the original programs people want to watch on the internet. It used to have a whole lot more.
That pessimism evaporated in September thanks to Netflix’s triumph at the Emmys and its string of recent hits. The company’s stock has rebounded to record highs.
“Squid Game” popped in late September — the very end of the fiscal quarter — so it’s possible Netflix won’t reap all the benefits when the company reports financial results later this month. But whether or not Netflix beats or misses expectations in the third quarter, developing more shows like “Squid Game” is of existential importance for the company.
For all the fuss about video games and online stores, the most obvious way for Netflix to keep growing is adding customers abroad. It has still only signed up a minority of people with access to high speed broadband, and the vast majority of its untapped customer base lives outside the U.S.
Netflix is already devoting more and more of its budget to shows in India, South Korea, Japan and Nigeria. The U.S. will get the largest share of total dollars spent, but a smaller share of new dollars spent.
While Netflix’s competitive advantage in the U.S. has largely evaporated over the past couple years, its advantage abroad more significant. Few of its peers have much experience making shows abroad, nor do they have comparable infrastructure. ViacomCBS and Comcast have teamed up in Europe so they can better compete. HBO Max isn’t even operating in some of the biggest European territories yet. And Apple is just getting started.
Disney remains an exception because of the global appeal of its biggest brands. But Marvel and “Star Wars” alone will not make it more popular than Netflix. The company warned its growth is slowing down in part because of a slow start in Latin America.
It took Netflix many years to solve Latin America. It had to figure out how to get people to pay and get connected to its service, but it also had to program for a local audience. It turned out Brazilians only wanted to watch so much “Breaking Bad.”
It’s only a matter of time before these companies take a page from Netflix’s playbook. You could argue it’s already happening. All of the biggest Western media companies are pumping money into productions all over the world, providing more jobs and higher pay for actors and producers all over the world. This is a profound shift.
There will be a time and place to debate the negative impact of this cultural imperialism. It’s not good if Netflix, Amazon, Disney and Apple come to dominate the entertainment business in every corner of the world. But, for now, most producers are thrilled to have the opportunity to reach a global audience.
It is possible we will all forget about “Squid Game” by this time next year. But it’s inevitable that there will be a lot more of them. We’re in the early innings of the globalization of premium storytelling. First on Netflix, and soon enough, everywhere else. — Lucas Shaw
The best of Screentime (and other stuff)
A crowded October is bad news for James Bond
The No. 1 movie in the world is “No Time to Die.” The latest installment in the James Bond franchise grossed almost $60 million in the U.S., and has surpassed $300 million worldwide. That sounds big, but it is at the lower end of what MGM had expected.
There will be plenty of blame to spread around. The movie is almost three hours long, which limits both its appeal and its number of showings. It was delayed so many times people may have just forgotten it was out. We’re still in a pandemic. Overall moviegoing is down from two years ago.
The biggest reason is a crowded schedule. Movie studios lined up a lot of big releases for the fall, hoping to capitalize on the return to moviegoing.
“No Time to Die” opened just a week after “Venom: Let There Be Carnage.” Normally Bond would want to give the “Spider-Man” spin-off another weekend. “Venom” grossed more than $30 million this past weekend, and stole a lot of young viewers.
But Sony moved “Venom” up after it saw the strong performance for “Shang Chi,” blunting Bond’s momentum. Bond will hope for a strong hold in the weeks ahead, but the competition keeps coming. “Halloween Kills” opens next weekend. The last film opened to $76 million. “Dune” opens the week after that.
Movie theater owners are thumping their chests about this triumphant October. But movie studios may remember this as a tough time to turn a profit.
- The No. 1 movie in China is...“The Battle at Lake Changjin.” It has grossed more than $600 million since it was released a couple weeks ago, and is already one of the 10 highest-grossing movies in history of China. Three Chinese movies have grossed more than $600 million this year. Only one U.S. movie has grossed that threshold globally. (It’s “F9.”)
- The top musician in the world all summer was Olivia Rodrigo. She topped our Pop Star Power Rankings four months in a row – the first time anyone has done that.
YouTube wants to invest in podcasting (finally)
YouTube is, by some measures, the largest podcasting platform in the world.
Thousands of podcasts record themselves on video while taping the audio for their shows. They then post these videos to YouTube, where they generate millions of views. (See Joe Rogan, h3h3, etc.) And yet, YouTube has never invested in tools or promotion for podcasts.
But the company just made Kai Chuk its first executive dedicated specifically to podcasts. The exact scope of the job is still a little TBD, but it is a sign that the company finally sees the potential in this space. (It may or may not be related to Spotify’s growing interest in video podcasts, which is a direct threat.)
Also in YouTubeland: The video site removed two channels associated with convicted felon R. Kelly. The music industry revolted when Spotify punished artists for their behavior. I would love to hear the conversations between YouTube music chief Lyor Cohen and music managers.
Hulu’s old boss is Peacock’s new boss
Kelly Campbell stepped down as president of Hulu, and will now be the new head of Peacock.
Campbell’s departure was not a surprise to anyone who worked at the Walt Disney Co. Disney had already folded most of Hulu into its streaming division, robbing the company of its independence and putting Disney people in charge of most of its business units. Kareem Daniel oversees the business of Hulu, while Peter Rice and Dana Walden handle the programming.
The timing and the speed with which she left was more of a surprise. And that has to do with her leaving for a competitor. In Peacock, she joins a service that could use a shot in the arm. It is somewhere between the 6th and 10th biggest service in the U.S., and has little in the way of anchor programming.
She will also need to navigate another complicated corporate map. Comcast has several layers of executives above and around her.
Wall Street wants to buy your songs
Private equity firms are splurging on music copyrights, a sentence that tells you all you need to know about the recovery of the record business.
Blackstone is about to create a $1 billion fund for manager Merck Mercuriadis to buy copyrights, and KKR is backing a deal to buy a song fund operated by Kobalt.
Their interest is fairly simple. They have too much money. Music revenues are rising. Music revenues are stable and uncorrelated to the market. And thus music is a safe place to park your excess money.
But the more interesting question is what this deal means for Mercuriadis. The music manager has almost singlehandedly boosted the market for music catalogs over the last few years, spending close to $2 billion on songs from Neil Young and Lindsey Buckingham. His rivals have groused that he is overspending, paying multiples that make no sense.
This deal with Blackstone raises a few questions:
- How do Hipgnosis investors feel about him starting what could be seen as a competing fund?
- Will Blackstone force Mercuriadis to be a bit more fiscally conservative?
- Why is he creating a separate fund instead of having Blackstone invest in (or acquire) Hipgnosis, his existing fund?
Deals, deals, deals
- Hollywood labor union IATSE voted to authorize a strike. But… most members of the union don’t want to strike. They want the studios to make concessions. And studios remain optimistic they will reach a new deal and avoid an actual strike.
Weekly Playlist
This second season of “Ted Lasso” divided critics. There was the natural contrarian criticism spawned by the praise its first season received. There was the inevitable disappointment that comes with heightened expectations.
And yet, I loved it. It was imperfect. It forced some conversations about mental health. The heel turn in the final episode didn’t work for me.
But it manages to be a fun (and funny) show that offers a positive outlook on the world without being naïve or cloying. It has established several compelling characters. And it is a refreshing meditation on masculinity by writers who seem to appreciate and elevate female characters in a typically masculine world.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-10-10/-squid-game-is-netflix-s-first-korean-hit-a-japanese-show-is-next
2021-10-10 22:29:57Z
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