Game Preview: no. 7 Washington State takes on no. 2 Iowa State - CougCenter

Washington State Men’s Basketball pulled off a tight first-round win over Drake, but now they face a deadly Iowa State team in the second round. The Cougs are once again going to be in a road environment, as Ames is a two and a half hour ride from Omaha, and the Cyclones are a fanbase that loves to travel. But the Cougs have already won one proverbial road game in March, and taking care of business is just what this team does.

This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring, defensive affair- it’s going to be a battle of toughness and wills, and a little bit of luck sprinkled one way or another. Because of that fact, this game is going to come down to who’s defense can most consistently cover up their limited weaknesses.

Iowa State’s Defense

The Cyclones are the second-best defensive team in the country (according to Kenpom) and they’re going to be a tough nut to crack for the Cougs. Iowa State is defensively strong thanks to their ball-pressure, off-ball swarming, and versatile scheming. The Cyclones are effective at making teams run through a lot of the shot-clock, generally requiring multiple actions to get looks and often, and use their strong help and ball-pressure to force bad turnovers later in possessions.

Usually high volume turnover forcing teams don’t have long average possession lengths defensively, but this is all part of the plan for Iowa State. They don’t tend to only overpressure to hunt steals, or take gambles to jump passing lanes- instead, they want their turnovers to come after penetration, or, more satisfactory, after teams try and fail to get through. The Cyclones swarm in to help, stopping the ball and scram switching in passing lanes with ease. This tends to force drivers to pick the ball up in the middle of a congested area and then deny the next few passes.

This type of defense obviously presents a huge problem for a team like WSU, because the Cougs love to turn it over. Against Drake, a notably low turnover-forcing team, WSU had 11. The majority of those turnovers were just being unable to catch the ball, being bothered by their lack of spacing, or getting stuck in bad spots and having to throw the ball with little space. This is all the type of stuff that Iowa State will feast on if the Cougs can’t clean it up.

There’s also a good chance that Iowa State is going to throw a lot of looks at Isaac Jones in the post. Jones is the clear offensive focal point for the Cougs and the Cyclones will have him at the center of their scouting report. They will almost certainly not guard him straight up, but the question is how those doubles will come and who they will come off of. Jones is fairly solid at handling doubles if they come before he dribbles, but once he puts the ball down, he struggles to playmake through congestion.

The big counter for WSU here could be the small-ball lineup. Iowa State plays a fairly small lineup and they won’t punish WSU’s small-ball group with size, but their athletes could overmatch Jones as a lone rim-protector. The lineup of Myles Rice, Isaiah Watts, Jaylen Wells, Andrej Jakimovski, and Jones won WSU the Drake game, but it is far from a solve all and there will be a tradeoff should they go to it.

The Cyclones biggest overall defensive weakness is their lack of depth at the big spot. If Robert Jones is in foul trouble and the Cyclones are forced to rely on Hason Ward, they are going to have a much tougher time matching up with WSU’s size in the post. Even if they mix in the hard doubles and digs on WSU’s post-scorers, the Cougs will likely still be able to create good looks out of post-ups with some consistency.

Iowa State is also a bad defensive rebounding team and the Cougs are obviously more than happy to exploit that. WSU had 15 offensive rebounds against Drake, and they will need to grab just as many to compete with Iowa State here. Both to get extra possessions in general, and to put ISU’s bigs in compromising positions with fouls.

The Cyclones also give up a high-volume of threes. A big reason for this is that teams are more likely to take long threes late in the shot-clock, but it is also because quick ball-movement around the perimeter can bother their swarming defense. ISU has held teams to 31.8% from outside this season, and while some of that is good closeouts and forcing bad shots, there is also some luck involved there that could regress in WSU’s favor.

The odds are that WSU is not going to be efficient on a play-per-possession standpoint unless Iowa State falls asleep on their shooters. But, if WSU can make some shots, limit turnovers, and get a ton of offensive boards, there is a path to overall efficiency here. Iowa State is a great defensive team but the Cougs have a couple specific matchup advantages that give them a shot here.

WSU’s Defense

Iowa State’s offense is built around maintaining possession with offensive rebounds and avoiding turnovers while getting to the rim with drives as much as possible. They are an efficient but low-volume shooting team. They run a whole ton of pick-and-roll, which will play nicely into WSU’s hands and they don’t have a ton of elite shooters that can punish the Cougs. They have guys who can make shots- and Tamin Lipsey especially will need to be guarded closely, but they tend to be reliant on Keshon Gilbert to get downhill to make their offense work.

In an ideal world, one of Oscar Cluff or Reuben Chinyelu can be survivable offensively and thus can be kept on the floor for their defensive boost. Cluff and Chinyelu struggled mightily to guard a post-scorer like Brodie in the last game, but the Cyclones don’t have that same type of post-scorer down low. Instead, they rely on pick-and-roll and downhill drives to create their rim attempts. Cluff and Chinyelu are much more effective defending in those settings than they are defending in the post.

Playing big will also help the Cougs control the boards. The small-ball lineup was a part of why the Bulldogs were able to grab 14 offensive rebounds and playing bigger could negate that a bit. The thing with playing big is that one of Cluff or Chinyelu has to be better than they have been over the last couple weeks. If one of them steps up, WSU would be in a great spot defensively and they could hopefully figure some things out offensively. If neither of the two bigs can be consistently effective, thought, WSU will have to make the small-ball work.

Just like against Drake, a lot would fall on Watts to step up defensively. He is going to have to be able to hold his own against plus guard scorers like Lipsey and Gilbert in pick-and-roll without a ton of help behind him. A lot more is also going to fall onto Jakimovski as a help defender and low-man. The small-ball lineup will certainly help WSU’s offense and spacing, but if this game is going to be won defensively, then I have some reservations about relying on it to play big minutes.

Who Will Win?

Iowa State is the favorite in this game for a reason. They are a devastating defense with guards who can get downhill and create. The Cougs have, potentially, the best scorer in this game with Jones but he is also a player who is susceptible to the swarming defense of the Cyclones. ISU and WSU play with the same pace and want to do a lot of similar things, and in March, it can so often come down to which team embodies that identity more.

The Cyclones have the edge here, for sure, but I imagine this game is going to be close and there is a chance that WSU has the better closers. Maybe this is Wells’ night. Maybe Jakimovski goes off for a career night. Maybe Cluff gets 20 and 10 with 7 assists and makes Nate Dahl cry tears of joy. Who is to say? But the Cougs have a real chance here, and in Kyle Smith we trust.

Game tips off at 3:10 pm Pacific Time on TNT. Go Cougs!

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2024-03-23 20:00:00Z
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