Joel Embiid's postseason has been a wild ride to this point, but he looked much healthier in Friday's 30-point showing after missing Game 1 and getting his feet wet in Game 2. If Philly wants to knot up this series, it starts with another MVP performance.
The Boston Celtics are past their opening game blip and can take a 3-1 series lead over the Philadelphia 76ers with another win inside Wells Fargo Arena this afternoon.
Boston has bounced back from a bad loss at home to a Joel Embiid-less Sixers squad in Game 1 to take control of this Eastern Conference semifinal. The Celtics smashed the 76ers by 34 points in Game 2 and then handed Philadelphia a 114-102 beating on its own floor in Game 3.
The NBA Playoff odds expect Philly to fall again in Game 4, with Boston pegged as a road favorite Sunday afternoon. I break down that spread and Over/Under total and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Celtics at 76ers on May 7.
Celtics vs 76ers Game 4 best odds
Celtics vs 76ers Game 4 picks and predictions
The Boston Celtics don’t have an answer for Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid. But then again, neither do the other 28 NBA teams.
Embiid showed why he was hoisting the league MVP award before Game 3, scoring 30 points and keeping the 76ers within striking distance despite a cold night from his supporting staff. The Celtics could be content with this formula on defense — locking down Philly’s other options — knowing Embiid is going to get his against an undersized and undermanned Boston frontcourt.
Embiid’s point prop for Game 4 is sitting as low as 27.5 (Over -130) which was the same number installed for Game 3. Of course, the big concern with betting his Over in any player market is that his aching knee acts up and limits his time.
His projections for Sunday afternoon bounce between a conservative 25 points to as high as 35, while my number lands just short of 31 points in Game 4. It’s a risk worth taking, especially since you see the vig on Over 27.5 climbing past -150 at some spots, and other books have already jumped to 28.5 points.
Boston threw the kitchen sink at Embiid in Game 3 with five different defenders and multiple double teams over the course of the game. Head coach Doc Rivers told the media Embiid’s ailing knee felt great and the eye test saw a much spryer and more mobile MVP than the one that played limited minutes in the Game 2 blowout.
"One of our analytics guys was like, 'Is there any way we can play him 48 minutes?'" Rivers told reporters after Saturday’s practice. "I was like, 'no.' He looked good. More importantly, he felt great today and that’s the key."
Embiid missed the series opener with Boston and Game 4 vs. Brooklyn in the East quarterfinals due to a sprained LCL and logged just 15 points in 27 minutes in his return to action in Game 2. He played 39 minutes in Game 3, shooting 9-for-19 from the floor for 30 points, including going 11-for-12 from the foul line.
My best bet: Joel Embiid Over 27.5 points (-130)
Celtics vs 76ers same-game parlay
Joel Embiid Over 27.5 points (-130)
James Harden Over 8.5 assists (+100)
Jaylen Brown 5+ rebounds (-295)
Boston isn’t big enough to slow down Embiid, who looked so much healthier in Game 3. Philadelphia’s offense needs to generate buckets off assists and Harden can find the open hand in the halfcourt as well as wheel-and-deal in transition. Brown has brought in seven, six, and five rebounds in the first three games and is projected for just under seven boards, which is more than enough for his modest rebound total.
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Celtics vs 76ers Game 4 spread and Over/Under analysis
Another convincing win for the Celtics left NBA odds to install Boston as big as a 3.5-point road favorite for Game 4 in Philadelphia.
That spread slimmed to as low as Boston -2.5 and has bounced between that and -3, as of Sunday morning. This is a point higher than the market for Game 3, in which the Sixers hit the board at 1.5-point home underdogs and jumped to -2.5 before closing as 2-point pups.
Boston’s long list of scoring options has really been the difference in the past two games. Stars like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have gotten their big numbers, but role players like Derrick White, Marcus Smart, and Malcolm Brogdon have the Celtics’ attack pumping out the points – even when those standouts take a seat.
Philadelphia got an MVP-caliber performance from Joel Embiid in Game 3, with the center scoring 30 points on 9-for-19 shooting and pulling down 13 rebounds. The rest of the 76ers, unfortunately, combined to go 37% from the field, including James Harden who finished with 16 points on 3-for-14 shooting.
Boston has countered the Sixers’ size inside by turning up the tempo with a smaller lineup, which has the Celtics playing active defense and beating Philly to its spots while also picking up the pace of the game and taking Philadelphia out of its comfort zone.
Head coach Doc Rivers preached taking what the defense is giving you after practice Saturday, with an emphasis on getting inside and scoring buckets at the rim.
The Over/Under for Game 4 hit the board at 215 points and has since trimmed to as low as 214 at some sportsbooks.
Games 1 and 3 have topped similarly sized totals while Game 2 played Under due to the 76ers pulling the plug on their night in the second half after getting blown out by Boston.
The firepower is there to produce another Over winner, especially considering both teams knocked down 16 3-point buckets in Game 3. Philadelphia needs its guards to get going early with easier looks at the rim and finish those shots inside, so expect an aggressive approach for Philly out of the gate with high screens.
Boston’s offense has been quite efficient with an effective field goal rate of 58.5% for the series and multiple options to find the basket. The Celtics’ ball movement wore down the 76ers defense in Game 3, with the C’s earning an assist on almost two-thirds of their total buckets.
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Celtics vs 76ers betting trend to know
The Celtics have gone Over in six of their last seven games in the NBA Playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. 76ers.
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Celtics vs 76ers Game 4 game info
| Location: | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, May 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Celtics vs 76ers Game 4 key injuries
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