Keys to ALDS Game 5 between Guardians and Yankees - MLB.com

That was all entertaining. But none of the above gave us a Game 5 in the Division Series round.

It’s back to the Bronx for the AL East and AL Central champs, who have played a tight, tense and terrific ALDS that now comes down to a winner-take-all Monday night at Yankee Stadium.

“You know,” said Cleveland manager Terry Francona, “if you would have told me back in, I don't know, March that we just signed up to play Game 5 in New York, to go to the ALCS, I would have jogged to New York. I mean, this is -- I'm excited.”

Aren’t we all? Through four games, the Yankees’ and Guardians’ cumulative offensive output, which they come at from completely different angles, is 15 runs for the power-packed Yankees and 13 for the pesky young Guardians. It has been close, and it has been captivating.

Advancement to an ALCS that will begin in Houston on Wednesday night is on the line. Here are five keys that could decide the outcome.

1. The unexpected starters

Remember, the rainout that pushed Game 2 back a day eliminated the possibility of these clubs bringing back their Game 2 starters (Nestor Cortes for the Yankees, Shane Bieber for the Guards) on short rest. And so New York’s Jameson Taillon and Cleveland’s Aaron Civale get the call.

Taillon had moments of brilliance but struggled with consistency in 2022, pitching to a 3.91 ERA and exactly-league-average 100 ERA+ in 177 1/3 innings. He was effective at limiting hard contact, but, then again, hard contact is not the modus operandi for this Guardians team, as we saw when they sent Taillon to a loss in his rare relief outing in Game 2. The inning unraveled after José Ramírez reached and advanced all the way to third on a bloop to shallow left field. But pitching in his more familiar role should benefit Taillon, who was terrific in Toronto in the Yankees’ division clincher on Sept. 27 (two runs, 7 1/3 innings).

“I have kept working in the weight room, training room, the staff keeping me ready, the long-toss program, the bullpens,” he said. “I definitely still feel built up for whatever they need.”

Civale had a really scattered year, interrupted by three trips to the injured list. His overall numbers aren’t pretty (4.92 ERA, 78 ERA+), and the Yankees contributed to that in a big way by scoring 10 runs off him in nine innings over two starts. Civale did finish the season on a solid note (3.27 ERA, .559 opponent OPS in four September/October starts), but, with a 40.4 opponent hard-hit rate, this is obviously a difficult assignment for him.

Neither Taillon nor Civale has started a postseason game. No pressure, boys.

2. The Guards’ rested relievers

Francona can afford to have a quick hook with Civale. And should the Guards grab an early lead, look for the skipper to be especially aggressive with a bullpen that was able to rest its best arms over the weekend. In Game 2 in New York, Cleveland got 1 1/3 innings (21 pitches) out of Trevor Stephan, two-thirds of an inning (29 pitches) out of James Karinchak and 2 1/3 innings (33 pitches) out of closer Emmanuel Clase. Those are the guys Francona trusts most in high-leverage spots, and none of them were used in Games 3 and 4.

So they’ll be ready, and Clase’s ability to give the Guards multiple innings of (often) ruthlessly efficient outs is a big weapon in this elimination effort.

All told, Cleveland’s relievers have allowed just two runs on nine hits with 34 strikeouts and eight walks in 25 2/3 innings this postseason.

It’s different with the Yankees’ bullpen, which has allowed five runs in 12 2/3 innings in this series. Forcing a Game 5 required an inning of work Sunday from Wandy Peralta, who also worked a combined 2 2/3 innings on Friday and Saturday. That could limit the availability and/or effectiveness of an important setup option who only recently returned from a back issue.

When you get right down to it, the Yankees are kind of winging it in a bullpen drastically affected by injury this year. That’s why Cortes looms as an interesting subplot, available to come in relief on his side day, even if the Yanks would prefer to avoid that.

“We'll see,” manager Aaron Boone said. “You know, we'll see. Hopefully I won't have to use him. But he'll be ready to go and, you know, I'll put a limit on it.”

With the notable exception of a 449-foot homer in Game 3 that Francona joked he’d pick up on his way home from the ballpark, Judge has been kept quiet by this Cleveland pitching staff.

In this ALDS, Judge is 2-for-16 with a walk and nine strikeouts. In his postseason career against Cleveland, he is 4-for-45 with two homers and 29 K’s. The Guards have done a good job of executing non-fastballs in the bottom of the zone and staying away from those middle-middle meatballs that Judge can pound to another county. It’s a big reason why this series is going to a fifth game.

In forcing a Game 5, the Yankees guaranteed Judge at least one more home date before hitting free agency. The man who broke the AL home run record was actually booed in the Bronx in Game 2. Will it be boos or bombs for Judge in Game 5?

5. Does experience matter?

The inexperience of the youngest team in the Majors simply has not been a factor in this season and in this postseason. The Guardians debuted 17 rookies this year and have put the rawest of rookies -- Gabriel Arias and Will Brennan, who had a combined 27 games played in the regular season -- in some big spots in this series. And yet, here they are, a win away from the ALCS.

But here’s the biggest test yet. The Guardians showed some rare defensive jitters in Game 1 under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium before looking more like themselves in the daylight in Game 2. Now, it’s an evening elimination effort against a Yankees lineup with loads more October experience and against a Yankees franchise that has a .609 winning percentage (fourth best all-time) in elimination games.

It's one last meeting for the Youngins and the Yanks, for the Bloopers and the Bombers. Here’s to the decisive Game 5 this special series deserves.

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