Game Preview: Patriots at Packers - Patriots.com

When the Patriots run - Edge: Packers

The Patriots will face a significant challenge going against a Packers defense that has been dominant in the early going, whether Mac Jones is available or not. Green Bay is stingy across the board, allowing 113 yards per game on the ground and just 302 per game overall. However, the Packers are allowing almost 5 yards per carry, and that total ranks 25th in the league. The Patriots will likely try to continue using the two-headed monster of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, both of whom were efficient in the loss to the Ravens. Stevenson in particular enjoyed a strong afternoon, consistently creating extra yards with his vision and toughness. They will need to continue getting that type of production, especially if Brian Hoyer is forced to take the reins as Jones deals with an ankle injury. The Pack won't be easy to run against despite the high average per carry. De'Vondre Campbell is an active inside linebacker playing behind nose tackle Kenny Clark and ends Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry. The Patriots offensive line had an up and down afternoon against Baltimore, opening some holes at times but also enduring a few lapses in key moments. The Patriots can't afford many of those breakdowns on the road at Lambeau Field.

When the Patriots pass - Edge: Packers

The Patriots may be catching a huge break in this matchup after Green Bay's standout corner Jaire Alexander was forced to leave the victory over the Bucs with a groin injury. His status is uncertain heading into Sunday. But the Packers pass defense is quite formidable, and Hoyer will have his hands full anyway. Green Bay ranks seventh in the league, allowing 189.3 yards per game through the air. If Alexander can't go his snaps will be divided among Rasul Douglas and Kelsean Nixon, who will join starter Eric Stokes. The Pack also has a solid safety tandem in Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage, and that secondary also benefits from solid pressure created up front. Green Bay only has seven sacks in three games with linebackers Rashan Gary (3) and Preston Smith (2) doing the bulk of the damage, but the Pack ranks ninth in the league in sacks per play, getting to the quarterback 8.2 percent of the time. Hoyer will need to get the ball out quick and find ways to get the ball into the hands of his receivers, and perhaps make an effort to get tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith more involved. It will also be interesting to see if Bill Belichick gives Kendrick Bourne additional opportunities to make plays, as the receiver has been productive with his limited chances.

When the Packers run - Edge: Packers

The Patriots run defense was outstanding in the first two games of the season. But neither Miami nor Pittsburgh is considered to have a potent rushing attack. Sunday against Baltimore was a different story, and it wasn't all about Lamar Jackson. The Ravens enjoyed far more success on the ground with their running backs than expected as they combined for 13 carries for 83 yards, and Jackson was exceptional with 110 yards on eight carries excluding three kneel downs to end the game. Lawrence Guy was forced to leave in the second half with a shoulder injury and did not return. The Patriots missed his presence inside, but the Ravens enjoyed success on the ground before he left as well. The guys up front will need to be ready for the Packers tough tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Jones has been outstanding thus far, averaging almost 7 yards per carry with most of that production coming over the past two games. Dillon has been held largely in check, averaging just 3.5 yards per rush, but he is a load and will stress the interior of the defense. The Packers average 128 yards per game on the ground, which ranks ninth, and a healthy 4.7 per carry (10th) as well. Sunday's struggles left New England's run defense reeling, ranking 19th in the league in yards (115) and 22nd in per carry average (4.9). Based on those numbers, they can expect to see a steady diet of Jones and Dillon.

When the Packers pass - Edge: Patriots

Predicting the Patriots to have the edge in a matchup against Aaron Rodgers seems comical, but so far Rodgers hasn't been able to find much success in life without Davante Adams. Rodgers is averaging 229 yards per game through the air, which would represent a career low. He's trying to find some rhythm with an almost entirely new set of receivers which includes rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson as well as veterans Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard. Doubs leads the team with 14 catches while Lazard has battled injuries and has just six. It's certainly possible that Rodgers suddenly finds his groove and reverts to the form that has allowed him to earn each of the last two NFL MVP awards, but the Patriots secondary should be able to compete with this group. Rodgers should benefit from the return of some of his offensive line as tackles David Bahktiari and Elgton Jenkins were in the lineup in Tampa after missing most of the first two weeks with knee injuries. Rodgers has been sacked eight times in three games, and the Patriots – led by Deatrich Wise – have been effective in generating pressure. The combination of pass rush and the Packers limited weaponry might allow the Patriots secondary to survive, particularly if they do a better job on tight end Robert Tonyan than they did last week with Baltimore's Mark Andrews.

Special Teams - Edge: Packers

Aside from Nick Folk's near perfection, the Patriots special teams have been anything but special in the early going. Last week saw Myles Bryant muff a punt for the second straight game, and the Ravens Devin Duvernay returned a third quarter Jake Bailey punt 43 yards to set up a key touchdown. Through three games Bailey's net average rests at 32.1 yards, which is last in the league. Meanwhile the return game hasn't provided much of a lift for the Patriots either. Green Bay's specialists include kicker Mason Crosby and punter Pat O'Donnell along with Amari Rodgers, who returns both punts and kicks. Crosby hasn't gotten much work thus far but is 8-for-8 with just two of those coming on field goals. Rodgers has a 24-yard punt return to his credit so Cam Achord will need to get his troops up to speed to avoid a repeat of last week's struggles. Overall there haven't been a lot of moments to get excited about with the Patriots special teams.

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2022-09-28 13:00:38Z
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