Game Preview: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots - Patriots.com

When the Patriots run - Edge: Ravens

Baltimore has been a bit erratic defensively in the early going and it shows in all areas. In terms of run defense, the Ravens allow just 84.5 yards per game through Week 2, which ranks eighth in the league. However, Baltimore is giving up 4.8 yards per rush, which is good for just 22nd overall. That's an indication that Baltimore has been able to play with the lead and eliminated the opponent's ability to remain balanced. It's also an indication that Baltimore has allowed some big plays on the ground, one huge one coming from Miami's Chase Edmonds for 28 yards during the Dolphins game-winning drive in the closing seconds last week. Otherwise, the Ravens have been their typically stingy selves when it comes to run defense. Miami averaged 3.4 yards per carry (17 carries for 58 yards) minus Edmonds' perfectly timed draw late when the Ravens were playing the pass. Baltimore's front is strong with Justin Madubuike and Calais Campbell around nose tackle Michael Pierce. Linebackers Patrick Queen and Josh Bynes do a good job of filling the holes inside and will be challenged by the Patriots tandem of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots best stretch of the early going came in the final six minutes after the run game had been effectively bottled up for the first seven-and-a-half quarters of the season. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots unlocked something in the ground game on the final drive or if it was simply a solid drive to close out the win.

When the Patriots pass - Edge: Patriots

Based on the first two weeks it's hard to imagine the Patriots getting the edge in an offensive category. For two games the offense has been stuck in neutral, and although New England moved the ball more effectively in Pittsburgh than in the opener, the result was still just 17 points and 10 of those came off a muffed Steelers punt at the 10. But watching the Ravens secondary implode in the fourth quarter against Miami was alarming. As a result Baltimore currently owns the worst pass defense in football, allowing 379 yards per game through the air. Tua Tagovailoa exploded for 469 yards passing and six touchdowns in the comeback win, repeatedly victimizing Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters, the Ravens talented cornerbacks. In fairness, Humphrey was battling a groin injury that forced him off the field on several of the plays where damage was done. Safeties Chuck Clark, Marcus Williams and rookie Kyle Hamilton will need to do a better job of eliminating the home run balls the Dolphins hit in the fourth quarter, and that could play right into the Patriots hands. Mac Jones isn't looking to air it out like Miami did, and if the Ravens focus on the deep ball it could open up opportunities for him to use Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor underneath like he did in Pittsburgh. That could allow for a more efficient passing attack than what we've seen thus far, and it could lead to Jones getting comfortable early.

When the Ravens run - Edge: Patriots

The Patriots run defense has been outstanding in the first two games, by far the best element of the team thus far. New England ranks fifth in the league in both rushing yards allowed (78 per game) and per attempt (3.5). That's a dramatic improvement from what we've seen in recent seasons, and it will be put to the test against Baltimore's unique running game. The Ravens have enjoyed success with Lamar Jackson thus far, as the quarterback leads the team with 136 yards on the ground while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. But Baltimore's backs have been held in check as J.K. Dobbins has yet to suit up while coming off a torn ACL suffered before last season. Dobbins has practiced in recent weeks and appears poised to return. He would join Kenyan Drake, Justice Hill and Mike Davis in the backfield, and none of them has produced much to this point. Lawrence Guy, Davin Godchaux, Christian Barmore and Deatrich Wise have been stout up front in both games and they'll need some disciplined play from Matthew Judon, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai and the safeties in an effort to contain Jackson on the edges. After being victimized by Jackson's legs in the first meeting back in 2019, the Patriots did a much better job in 2020, holding him to just 55 yards on 11 carries while eliminating the big plays. If the Ravens can't generate more from the backs, Jackson alone won't be enough to win this matchup.

When the Ravens pass - Edge: Ravens

The problem when defending Baltimore's offense is the attention needed to contain Jackson often leads to trouble elsewhere. Thus far Jackson has been efficient throwing the ball, completing over 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards and six touchdowns against just one pick for 120.1 passer rating through two games. Tight ends Mark Andrews and rookie Isaiah Likely are solid while Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvarnay have been explosive. They've combined for four touchdowns already and average 27.8 and 16 yards per reception, respectively. The Patriots secondary has done a great job of keeping receivers in front of them, and that will need to continue against a Ravens team that likes to look downfield. Bill Belichick will likely try to force Jackson to be efficient in stringing plays together to move the ball, a tactic that has worked well in the past. Jalen Mills, Jonathan Jones and Myles Bryant have done a good job of tackling and therefore limiting the yards after the catch. Jackson has also done a good job of connecting on deep balls when given the chance, and with Andrews available underneath that will be a lot for the secondary to handle. As always, Jackson's legs could be the X-factor. If the Patriots are forced to devote extra bodies to contain him, that could lead to some openings through the air that Jackson seems more prepared to take advantage of.

Special Teams - Edge: Ravens

The Patriots special teams were not particularly sharp in Pittsburgh despite coming away with a key fumble recovery off a muffed punt by Gunner Olszewski. Myles Bryant mishandled an early punt and was fortunate to maintain possession in the end zone. Jake Bailey had a pair of plus-50 punts wind up in the end zone for touchbacks as well. And Nick Folk, who has been almost perfect as a Patriot, pushed a 52-yarder wide to the right. Those miscues will need to be cleaned up against a Baltimore team that has performed well in those areas. First and foremost Justin Tucker is the best kicker in football and he once again has been perfect on all 10 of his kicks to start the season, including a go-ahead 51-yarder just before the two-minute warning against Miami. Duvernay opened that game with an electric 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown as well. Jordan Stout has taken over punting duties for the Ravens and put three of his eight attempts inside the 20 against just one touchback in two games. Like Belichick, John Harbaugh is a former special teams coach and the Ravens have traditionally been fundamentally sound in the kicking game and so far the 2022 season looks no different.

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2022-09-21 13:02:41Z
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