TOP STORYLINES
Planting a Seed – As noted above, the Vikings' Week 14 trip to Tampa has become a much more significant one in the playoff race than could have been envisioned a month ago. In fact, it is the only game on the NFL's Week 14 schedule that pits two teams among the top seven NFC seeds against each other…or even two NFC teams with non-losing records. The Bucs and Vikings have virtually the same thing at stake on Sunday – either holding onto or taking away the sixth conference seed – but come at the game from different viewpoints. The Vikings want to continue their hot streak and prove that they are legitimate contenders after a 1-5 start. Only one of Minnesota's wins came against a team that currently has a winning record. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers saw a very comfortable 7-3 position get more tenuous with consecutive 27-24 losses to the Rams and Chiefs and would like to start the four-game run to the finish line with a win that would keep them above the fray of teams around .500. If the Buccaneers win and improve to 8-5 they would stay in the sixth seed no matter what the 8-4 Seahawks and Rams do in Week 14, but they would also stay close enough to have a shot at eventually moving up to number five. If the Vikings win, they'll trade places with the Buccaneers in the standings and gain a valuable tiebreaker over Tampa Bay.
Cook or Take Out? – If Bucs-Vikings is one of the best playoff-race games of Week 14, then running back Dalvin Cook against the NFL's best run defense is one of the marquee matchups of the weekend. Cook leads the NFL with 113.6 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns this season and is one of the few non-quarterbacks who has generated some MVP buzz. Cook is a tackle-breaker who can grind out a 100-yard game but also a home-run hitter who can score from long distance if he hits the open field. The Buccaneers' run defense rarely lets either of those things happen and is first in the NFL in yards allowed for the second year in a row at 74.2 per game. No individual player has recorded a 100-yard rushing game against the Buccaneers yet this season, but Cook has hit that mark in six of the 11 games in which he's played. Tampa Bay's defense has been able to take the league's top rushers out of the equation on a nearly weekly basis over the past two years; can they do the same to Cook, who is the key figure in an offense that runs the ball on nearly 50% of its plays.
Will Youth Be Served? – The Vikings are counting on a lot of rookies on both sides of the ball and have generally gotten pleasant results from those young players. Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has already topped 1,000 receiving yards and right guard Ezra Cleveland is part of the blocking wall that has helped Cook succeed. On defense, both starting corners are rookies in first-rounder Jeff Gladney and third-rounder Cameron Dantzler, and fourth-round linebacker Troy Dye has started three games as the SAM linebacker in the Vikings' 4-3 front. D.J. Wonnum and James Lynch, a pair of fourth-round selections, have combined for four sacks. Inexperience on defense may be contributing to the Vikings' lower-than-usual rankings on that side of the ball, including their placement of 26th in both pass defense and scoring defense. Still, Minnesota has needed all of its rookie contributions to fight back into playoff contention, and in particular the two young cornerbacks have been progressing steadily as the season has worn on. Tampa Bay actually took its roster in a different direction in 2020 with a handful of veteran additions, most notably 40-plus quarterback Tom Brady. However, they hit on two immediate and outstanding contributors on their first two picks with right tackle Tristan Wirfs and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. Winfield will get his first chance to play against the team for which his father played for half of his long NFL career, and both he and wide receiver Tyler Johnson played their college ball at the University of Minnesota.
Firing Out of the Gate – While Buccaneer players used the bye week to rest, relax, heal and rejuvenate mentally, the team's coaches remained hard at work breaking down everything that had transpired during the season's first 12 weeks. While there is much to be pleased with on both sides of the ball, one unfortunate recent trend had the coaches' attention as they headed into that bye-week self-evaluation – after starting quickly in many of their early-season games then Buccaneers have recently had significant first-quarter struggles on both sides of the ball. Said Head Coach Bruce Arians: "I think we had those answers going into it, and it's third downs, manageable third downs, on offense. Defensively, it's just matching the speed. We do a great job in the second half but we've got to do a better job of matching the speed, especially if the team is in tempo to start the ball games. And get off the field on third downs [on defense]." The Bucs fell behind in their Week 12 game against the Chiefs, 17-0, and in the end their comeback wasn't enough to avoid a three-point loss. Overall, Tampa Bay has been outscored by a 59-10 margin in the first quarters of their last five games, which includes three losses and one very narrow Monday night escape from the Giants. Given the Vikings' often dominant ground game, it will be imperative that the Bucs start fast and avoid a big early hole on Sunday.
In the Red – As Arians also noticed this week, the Minnesota defense, while not ranked high in many categories, has been very good at situational football, particularly on third downs and in the red zone. In fact, Minnesota's defense ranks third in the league in touchdown percentage allowed on red zone drives, at 51.22%. The Vikings are also second in goal-to-go situations, with a touchdown allowed rate of 55.56%. All things considered, this sets up a strength-on-strength matchup on Sunday because the Buccaneers' offense ranks sixth in red zone TD rate (71.11%) and fourth in goal-to-go TD rate (84.85%). The problem is, those outstanding percentages are built on the Bucs' near perfection in those areas through the first half of the season. After eight games, the Buccaneers had scored touchdowns on 24 of 31 red zone drives (77.4%) and had come away with some kind of points on all of them. Over the last four games, that TD rate has dropped to 57.1% and the Bucs suffered their first complete red zone failure. As for goal-to-go situations, Tampa Bay amazingly scored a touchdown on each of its first 22 tries, which extended through the eighth game. Over the last four weeks, they've only found the end zone on six of 11 goal-to-go drives. If the upcoming game against a strong opponent proves to be just as close as the last two, whichever side wins the red zone battle will likely come out with a slight edge in the end.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Vikings CB Cameron Dantzler
The Vikings parted ways with a trio of veteran cornerbacks over the offseason and then spent first and third-round picks on corners Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler. Both Gladney and Dantzler took some lumps early on this season, as is the experience for almost all rookies trying to play one of the game's hardest positions in a league absolutely loaded with highly-talented pass-catchers. The two rookies have clearly progressed as the season has gone on, however, and now they get a test against one of the NFL's toughest wide receiver duos to contain, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. There could be any combination of those two players going one-on-one at various times Sunday, but Gladney is dealing with a calf injury and Dantzler, at 6-2, is a better size match for Evans than the 5-10 Gladney, so let's focus on Evans-vs.-Dantzler. The rookie corner out of Mississippi State got burned early in the season by some of the NFL's best players (Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Julio Jones) then suffered a scary-looking neck injury that caused him to miss some time. But he has played quite well since and is coming off his best game yet, with his first career interception and a key forced fumble in the Vikings narrow win over Jacksonville. Against Evans, he'll have several things to worry about, including the Bucs' receiver suddenly running past him down the sideline and the myriad ways Evans wins in the red zone. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Evans had 32 receptions on go routes from 2018 through Week 10 of this season, five more than any other player in the league. The Bucs' receiver also had 42 targets in the end zone in that span, seven more than any other player.
2. Vikings C Garrett Bradbury vs. Buccaneers DL Ndamukong Suh
In his second season, Garrett Bradbury has rapidly developed into one of the NFL's better centers after a difficult start to his rookie campaign. The 18th-overall pick in the 2019 draft, Bradbury is a very good run-blocker but he struggled early in pass protection. This year, he has improved significantly in that latter category and had not been credited with allowing a sack through the first half of the 2020 season. It is that run-blocking category that might be most important in this matchup, however, as the Vikings rely heavily on their ground game and the Buccaneers have been the NFL's best defense against the run for the past two seasons. Ndamukong Suh and the Tampa Bay defense will go into Sunday's game with the idea of slowing down Dalvin Cook right from the beginning so that they can more effectively come after Kirk Cousins with their pass rush. Suh and Bradbury might get some one-on-one battles, particularly when the Bucs are in their sub package with only two down linemen, and Bradbury will likely also be involved in some double-team blocks on Tampa Bay's powerful lineman. The 6-3, 305-pound Bradbury and the 6-4, 313-pound Suh match up well. Both are intelligent players and sound technicians who play with good leverage and continue fighting right up to the whistle. If the Buccaneers can contain Cook early and Suh gets to come after Cousins, Bradbury and company will have to deal with the interior lineman who has more QB pressures since the start of last season than every other player at his position except Aaron Donald and Casey Heyward, according to Next Gen Stats.
3. Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones vs. Vikings S Anthony Harris
The Vikings, who were already heavily invested in perennial Pro Bowl safety Harrison Smith, put the franchise tag on Anthony Harris this offseason after his breakout 2019 campaign. Last year, Harris tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions and was used mostly as a free safety to utilize his outstanding coverage skills. This year, Harris, a sure tackler too, is making more of an impact in run defense; after recording 33 tackles on run plays in 2019 he already has 41 this year with four games left to play. Not only will Harris be involved in trying to contain Bucs RB Ronald Jones, the NFL's fourth-leading rusher, around the line of scrimmage but he could be the last line of defense on the plays when Jones manages to break through the first line of defense or catches a pass in space. Jones has done that frequently lately, most recently with a 34-yard run and a 37-yard touchdown catch against Kansas City in Week 12. The Buccaneers are likely to make an effort to get Jones going early on Sunday, as Head Coach Bruce Arians says that the third-year back is "where we start" on offense and that he wants to get him 20 touches a game down the stretch. Jones is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season, which would be a new Buccaneer record if maintained, and while he's had his ups and downs as a pass-catcher he showed what he can do in Week 12 when Brady got him the ball with room to run. Jones said earlier in the week that he feels great coming out of the bye week and is ready to handle a heavy load during the playoff stretch run.
4. Vikings WR Adam Thielen vs. Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis
Rookie wideout Justin Jefferson has been a revelation for the Vikings, replacing Stefon Diggs and racking up a team-high 61 catches for 1,039 yards and seven touchdowns, with a 17.0 yards-per-reception average. But Bruce Arians noted earlier in the week that veteran wideout Adam Thielen is "really the go-to guy" for the Vikings, and it is Thielen who leads the team and ranks second in the NFL with 12 touchdown catches. Minnesota has increasingly used Thielen out wide rather than in the slot, where he used to get about half of his snaps, and he more often lines up on the right side of the offense. Thielen runs a lot of out-breaking routes and also works his way up the sideline frequently. Carlton Davis, the Bucs' top corner, has more often worked on the left side of the Bucs' defense, which should put him up against Thielen frequently on Sunday. Davis has good size and has the ability to match receivers' routes with tight coverage for a full 60 minutes, but Thielen is also adapt at winning low-percentage battles on contested catches, and that's particularly true around the end zone. Davis is tied for the NFL lead with 16 passes defensed and has broken up more passes than any other player since the start of last season. After the Chiefs built a big early lead on the Bucs in Week 12 with a series of big plays, Davis and his fellow defensive backs will be looking to make sure Thielen and company don't hit any home runs early in Sunday's game.
https://www.buccaneers.com/news/vikings-bucs-game-preview-week-14-2020-brady-evans-suh
2020-12-10 19:18:45Z
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