Game-by-game predictions: Can Texas top last year's 10-win season? - Dallas News

When the Longhorns celebrated their Sugar Bowl victory in January, the program was just two years removed from a 5-7 year, which was bookmarked by that infamous loss to Kansas.

Now, anything less than an appearance in the Big 12 championship is essentially a let down. The conference has returned to Oklahoma and Texas at the top followed by everybody else, but with marquee matchups against LSU and the Sooners, potentially twice, this season won't lack fireworks.

Here are game-by-game predictions for Texas' 2019 season:

Texas vs Louisiana Tech: Aug. 31

Season openers have not treated Texas well in the Tom Herman era thus far. Maryland, the doormat of the Big 10 conference, is the sole reason for the Longhorns' back-to-back week one losses.

It's difficult to give Texas a blowout win here simply based on its performances in season openers, and against group of five teams -- the Longhorns only beat Tulsa by a touchdown last season. It should also be noted that Louisiana Tech isn't exactly the easiest group of five opponent.

This is a team that only trailed LSU by three points in the fourth quarter last year. The Bulldogs also return plenty of talent on offense, including quartebrack J'Mar Smith and wide receiver Adrian Hardy Jr.

With all this being said, the Texas program is in a much different place than it was at this point last season. Herman won't let his team look forward to the mammoth of a game against LSU slated for the following week. Despite the Longhorns' struggles in season openers, Herman will finally win the first season opener of his tenure at Texas in convincing fashion.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Louisiana Tech 17

Texas vs LSU: Sept. 7

This game currently has one of the best cases for non-conference game of the year, only rivaled by Notre Dame's trip to Athens, Georgia on Sept. 21. This is where college football fans will see exactly what this season has in store for LSU's Joe Burrow and the Longhorn defense.

Ehlinger typically rises to the occasion for games like this, it's how he emerged onto the national scene last year. Ehlinger and the Texas offense will put the Longhorns into a position to win this game. It's the combination of LSU's offensive line and the returning talent at wide receiver, and on defense, that gives the Tigers just enough for a game-winning field goal in the final moments of the fourth quarter.

Score Prediction: Texas 27, LSU 30

Texas at Rice (NRG Stadium): Sept. 14

Disregard just about everything I said about Texas' performances against group of five opponents. Rice isn't Louisiana Tech. The Owls have managed to combine for just three wins over the last two seasons.

It's even hard to believe that whatever occurs the week prior against LSU will prevent a blowout win for Texas at NRG Stadium. If Texas enters this game with a 2-0 record, it would usually be a potential hangover game. That only applies if this game is against just about anybody other than Rice.

Score Prediction: Texas 49, Rice 17

Texas vs Oklahoma State: Sept. 21

Texas' recent struggles against Oklahoma State are well-noted. A four-game losing streak to any team is hard to miss for the Longhorns. Aside from 2016, Texas' losses all came by a mere three points.

Hawaii grad transfer Dru Brown is reportedly battling with freshman Spencer Sanders for the starting gig. Whoever gets the job will have wide receiver Tylan Wallace, who gave Texas headaches -- 222 receiving yards worth of headaches.

This game will resemble more of the 2018 shootout rather than the Pokes' 13-10 overtime win in 2017. By this time, Keaontay Ingram and Jordan Whittington should start to find a rhythm. Ehlinger and Collin Johnson's timing will also be in mid-season form.

This will be another close Texas-Oklahoma State matchup, but I have the Longhorns beating the Cowboys for the first time since 2015.

Score Prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma State 31

Texas at West Virginia: Oct. 5

Last year was West Virginia's best shot at taking the Big 12 championship to Morgantown. The Mountaineer's 2018 season is about as disappointing as an 8-4 campaign can get.

One of their highlights, though, was West Virginia's last-second two-point conversion to complete a 42-41 victory in Austin. However, a lot has changed for the Mountaineer's since then. For starters, Dana Holgorsen is gone, as is Will Grier, David Sills, Yodny Cajuste and Gary Jennings.

For this reason, I don't think West Virginia has the offensive power to keep up with Texas, as the Mountaineers sink to the lower half of the Big 12.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, West Virginia 27

Texas vs Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl): Oct. 12

This has a repeat of last season's Red River Rivalry written all over it. While Alex Grinch will likely churn out a new and improved Oklahoma defense this year, it's hard to see either team failing to reach the 35-point mark.

Just like every year, this game is a complete coin flip. It's hard not to picture these teams meeting later in the year for the Big 12 title again. For the first meeting, though, Oklahoma's offense -- Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Trey Sermon, etc. -- will put up video game numbers. Texas falls short by a touchdown.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Oklahoma 45

Texas vs Kansas: Oct. 19

If there's a chance for a strong bounce back outing on this schedule, it's this week against Kansas.

However, even after the 2016 shocker in Lawrence, which essentially ended Charlie Strong's stint at Texas, the Longhorns haven't exactly blown out the Jayhawks in the years since. That should change this season.

Even with Les Miles, Kansas just doesn't have the depth to compete with any team in the Big 12, at least for the time being. Kansas' scholarship hole can't be overstated. Just to paint the picture: Kansas Athletic Director Jeff Long estimates that it will be another four to five years before the Jayhawks reach the NCAA maximum of 85 scholarship players due to the 25 player per signing class rule. That's just barely scraping the issues Les Miles inherited when he accepted this job.

College football doesn't exactly need Kansas football to be a conference power. What it does need, is Les Miles -- in any capacity. That just might mean two or three wins this season, though, and this game likely won't be one of them.

Score Prediction: Texas 45, Kansas 20

Texas at TCU: Oct. 26

It's hard to envision TCU finishing the season with a 7-6 record for a second-consecutive year. There is one similarity from last year, and it revolves around the Horned Frogs' search for their starting quarterback.

Alex Delton, the grad transfer from Kansas State, might be the best bet, while freshman Max Duggan doesn't appear to be too far behind. Whoever Gary Patterson goes with, TCU won't have a lack of talent on offense with Jalen Reagor along with Darius Anderson both returning.

On defense, TCU will try and replace defensive ends Ben Banogu, Ty Summers and L.J. Collier along with safeties Niko Small and Ridwan Issahaku.

The new faces on both defenses will define this game. The speed of Texas' newcomers combined with the playmaking abilities of the veterans will be the difference here.

Score Prediction: Texas 31, TCU 21

Texas vs Kansas State: Nov. 9

The Wildcats find themselves in a situation the program hasn't been in for three decades. There was Bill Snyder's departure in 2006, though he returned after the 2008 season.

The 79-year-old likely won't make another return, so Kansas State now starts a new era. Kansas State wouldn't have been a popular pick here either way, but this surely doesn't help the Wildcats' case.

The Longhorns haven't heard the "We Own Texas" chants since 2016. That shouldn't change this year.

Score Prediction: Texas 38, Kansas State 21

Texas at Iowa State: Nov. 16

A trip to Ames in November is about as dangerous as it gets in the Big 12. This Iowa State team isn't an underdog anymore, either. The program Matt Campbell is building enters this season in the Big 12 title discussion, and for good reason.

After taking over as the starting quarterback last season, quarterback Brock Purdy has thrown his name into the top tier of Big 12 quarterbacks. Even with Purdy, the defense will be the stronger unit, as they will likely boast the best defense in the Big 12 for a second-straight year.

The one thing that will hurt the Cyclones is life without wide receiver Hakeem Butler, who averaged 22 yards per catch, and running back David Montgomery, a two-time All Big-12 back. The absence of these two players will be evident in early November when Iowa State plays Oklahoma and Texas in back-to-back weeks.

Texas also simply has more playmakers on offense. This combined with the Cyclones' matchup with the Sooners the week prior is what decides this close game.

Score Prediction: Texas 31, Iowa State 28

Texas at Baylor: Nov. 23

This is the latter of the trickiest two-week stretch on Texas' schedule. Similar to Matt Campbell, Matt Rhule has impressed the rest of the conference with the rebuilding process currently taking place in Waco.

Baylor returns wide receiver Denzel Mims and quarterback Charlie Brewer as well as plenty of talent on defense. This will be a classic Big 12 shootout for three quarters, but the Baylor defense will get worn out en route to a 42-34 victory for Texas.

Score Prediction: Texas 42, Baylor 34

Texas vs Texas Tech: Nov 29

Whether it's the Red Raiders playing with Kliff Kingsbury's job essentially on the line (2017) or Lil'Jordan Humphrey's game-winning touchdown reception with 21 ticks on the clock (2018), it's guaranteed fun anytime these two meet.

Texas Tech doesn't return Kliff Kingsbury, who is now coaching Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Who the Red Raiders do return is Alan Bowman, the quarterback who finished with Tech's highest completion percentage since Seth Doege in 2012.

Tech will make this an interesting ballgame, as always, though it's tough to picture Texas Tech completely derailing Texas' season. When has that ever happened?

In all seriousness, I see a back-and-forth affair in the first half. With an appearance in the Big 12 title game on the line for Texas, the Longhorns will take over on both sides of the ball for a 10-point victory.

Score Prediction: Texas 45, Texas Tech 35

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https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/texaslonghorns/2019/08/16/game-game-predictions-can-texas-top-last-years-10-win-season

2019-08-16 09:00:47Z
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